“Treasury is here to provide stability when you have a lot of volatility in the market”
VIDEO | The return of protectionism, exacerbated by Trump’s second term, means that treasurers worldwide will have their work cut out for them. In the session titled “Tariffs, trade wars, and treasury strategies in Trump era 2.0” at the Treasury 360° Nordic 2025 conference, a panel discussion took the audience on a deep dive into managing volatility, currency risks, supply chain disruptions, and cost inflation induced by tariffs. How should treasurers prepare for an evolving trade landscape?
For Danish jewellery giant Pandora, to say that the tariffs spell a tricky period for the company would be an understatement. Even with the ongoing 90-day tariff pause, which has reduced tariffs to a 10 per cent blanket rate on most imports to the US, the firm is expecting a hit of 300 million Danish kronor to its business.
Post-pause – considering that most of its production is in Thailand, and an upcoming facility in Vietnam – the estimate goes up to an additional 1.2 billion Danish Kronor yearly.
The challenges do not stop here. Jacob Dahlström, Pandora’s Global Treasury Manager reveals, “In the last year, we’ve seen a 59 per cent trough-to-peak increase in silver price. Gold has risen quite remarkably as well – and there was another 20 per cent increase in silver this year in the first quarter.” Since Pandora consumes 400 metric tonnes of silver a year, the increase in raw material price has presented a “substantial hit” to the business.
Dahlström revealed that the firm’s strategy has thus been focused on commodity hedging. “We decided to pause our commodity hedging programme and take, for the moment, what you can call a more opportunistic view.” It began in April last year when the team observed a 30 per cent volatility in the silver price. “We placed orders to secure better pricing when we saw the dips over late summer and again later in 2024.”
But no strategy is flawless. “It became a balancing act between adhering to your well-established risk management approach and serving your margin targets for the company as well as listening to our investors and their wishes,” Dahlström admits.
A different tale
It’s a very different story at Swedish polymer material producer Trelleborg. The firm operates on a local to local approach. “For countries like the US or China, what we produce in those countries is really to satisfy the local demand,” explains Trelleborg’s Group Treasurer Jens Billberg. The firm has around 100 manufacturing facilities globally – a set-up that was deemed not cost efficient pre-COVID, but has proven to be beneficial through the pandemic and current trade environment.
Following Trump’s tariff announcements in early April, Trelleborg acted swiftly to secure additional financing. “The market distress was very obvious in the commercial paper markets where investors preferred to keep cash positions instead of prolonging or taking new positions,” shares Billberg.
Hoarders anonymous
Zuzana Posoldova, Head of Trade Finance Sales EMEA at BNP Paribas CIB shared three points for mitigating risks under Trump’s tariffs: have good data, diversify your whole value chain, and take up the just-in-case approach.
On the first point, she says, “Without good quality data, you can’t analyse the impact of changes… Collecting data and being able to quantify your exposures with precision and formulating risk mitigation strategies is something that has become essential. It’s no longer something only optional.”
Her second recommendation stemmed from an observation that is not new, but has seen renewed interest among her clients recently – the “China plus one” strategy, or the search for manufacturing alternatives beyond China. But more than having backup suppliers or geographical diversification, it’s also about liquidity and funding sources – about “avoiding a single point dependency across your value chain and really building in the resilience across your whole operation”.
Her last point was based on the observation that many clients are piling stock, moving from a lean just-in-time approach to a just-in-case one. “Building and holding a buffer, especially for stock that is strategic, is something that we see more and more. We are being approached by our clients to help them build this buffer without needing to excessively tie up their capital.”
Treasury is here to help
Birgita Gjirja, Treasury Partner at treasury and risk consulting firm Zanders, left the audience with a reminder: “Treasury is here to provide stability when you have a lot of volatility in the market… I speak to many corporates that have had the same policy for a very long time. I think now is the time to really revisit, check, and ensure that it’s (those policies) are still working appropriately, and will be working appropriately.”
Panellists:
Jacob Dahlström, Global Treasury Manager, Pandora
Jens Billberg, Group Treasurer, Trelleborg
Birgita Gjirja, Treasury Partner, Zanders
Zuzana Posoldova, Head of Trade Finance Sales EMEA, BNP Paribas CIB
Moderated by:
Jan Dirk van Beusekom, Head of Marketing, BNP Paribas Cash Management, Trade Solutions and Factoring
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